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Case Studies
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1) Representative Kurt Granberg, Illinois
- RD107
2) Representative
Elaine Nekritz, Illinois - RD57
Kurt Granberg:
State Representative Kurt Granberg (IL-RD107) in Illinois during his
2006 Election.
Granberg has been a member of the
legislature since the late 1980s and has a long legislative
history. His District is conservative and leans Republican.
The district has been trending further to the right over the past
several cycles. Granberg did not face a primary challenge in 2006, but
we began polling in Granberg’s district in April of 2006 to help
identify the strongest elements of his record and his agenda while also
analyzing the initial outlook of the district.
Our initial survey found that voters in
this Southern Illinois district were in a terrible mood. The
"Wrong Track" sentiment was among the highest we had seen anywhere in
the state during the 2006 cycle. Downstate Illinois has been suffering
economically for many years. The downturn in the economy has lead to
increasing property taxes as their industrial base
subsided. We also found that Granberg wasn't experiencing
the level of enthusiasm and strength of support behind his numbers as
we would expect for a long-term incumbent.
As a general rule, when voters are in a
discouraged state, they are more susceptible to messages advocating
change. The voters were also very sour about the top of the ticket,
with the incumbent Democratic governor trailing behind a lackluster
Republican candidate. The environment was ripe for Granberg's
opponent.
John Cavaletto, Granberg's GOP opponent,
served as a basketball coach and had run against Granberg in
2002. These factors allowed Cavaletto to enter the race with more
recognition than a typical challenger would have and a good positive to
negative personal favorability ratio.
Polling not only helps determine what a
campaign should do, but also lends the campaign an insight on what
their opponent is likely to do. Our analysis determined that
Cavaletto was likely to go negative early. We suggested that
Granberg run an early and aggressive positive media plan to buffer the
upcoming barrage of attacks from the Cavaletto campaign. We also
suggested that the campaign be prepared to highlight Cavaletto's
weaknesses.
The negative ad wars began shortly after
our first poll. While the numbers fluctuated throughout the
campaign, Granberg was able to weather several vicious attacks from his
opponent because of the early efforts of his campaign to strengthen his
positives and build a strong shield against the predicted vicious
attacks.
The Granberg team effectively blunted
Cavelatto's charge by highlighting his weaknesses on various health
care, insurance, and economic issues. With support form the Democratic
Party of Illinois, the Granberg Campaign Team, the media consultants at
Julian Mulvey Group and our strategic polling, Granberg maintained his
seat on the legislature with 50.2% in a difficult district and
environment for a Democratic incumbent.
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Elaine
Nekritz: State
Representative Elaine Nekritz (IL-RD57) in Illinois during her 2002 election.
The District: The 57th District of
Illinois was a newly drawn open seat. The Republican incumbent
who had represented most of the new District was running for election
in an adjacent district. The District was in suburban Chicago with a
moderately to very affluent population. It had a sizeable Jewish
population. Republicans had a 4% advantage over Democrats in the
District and most statewide Republican candidates regularly won within
it. It is a moderately conservative District, with 67% of the
voters self identified as moderates (36%) or conservatives (31%).
This District never elected a Democratic State Representative, but was
highly targeted by both parties.
The Candidates: Democratic candidate Elaine
Nekritz was the Committeeman of the local Democratic
Party in Northfield Township. She had run an unsuccessful campaign for
this District under its old boundaries in 1996. She was a fiscal
conservative and moderate on social issues -- anti-tax, pro-choice,
anti-gun, etc.
Mary Childers, the
Republican candidate, was a lifetime resident of the area and an
Alderman in the community of DesPlaines.
She had a long history of community activism. She also had an
identical name of a well-known and popular Chicago TV news
anchorwoman. She was anti-tax, supported school vouchers and
supported restrictions on abortion and had the backing of pro-life
groups and the Republican establishment.
The Challenge: Nekritz
initially trailed Childers by 10 points (39% to 29%). Our polling
showed that Nekritz took command of the
election and led 47% to 41% in an informed trial heat, where the voters
were provided positive and negative information on both candidates.
The Strategy: F&A's polling indicated that the
campaign needed to increase Elaine's name recognition quickly and
utilize issues like gun control and abortion (in a targeted manner) to
set up a contrast with Childers, while using more general issues like
prescription drugs and education to a wider audience.
Essentially, our polling directed the campaign to turn the election
into a "values" choice between somebody who is in touch with their
concerns (Nekritz) vs. somebody who is out
of touch with their values (Childers).
Although there was a clear
contrast on abortion and single issue pro-choice voters outnumbered
single issue pro-life voters, the conservative lean of the District
caused us to use that issue in a targeted manner. The campaign
used Elaine's strong support of gun safety in contrast with Childers'
innocuous position on the issue as a defining message for Nekritz. Elaine's anti-tax, prescription
drug and education plans were used to further develop her image.
The Outcome: Nekritz'
early efforts to define herself through gun control and abortion issues
and her attacks on Childers forced the Republican campaign into
response mode from the onset. Childers never regained
focus. Nekritz hammered away at her
core message and never was distracted by Childers' attempts to portray
her as a liberal tax and spend Democrat who was connected to the Chicago
Democratic political machine.
Elaine
jumped into a 10-point lead (40% to 30%) in our October tracking
survey. Nekritz went on to win by
2,234 votes (55% to 45%), in this Republican leaning district.
The 2002 election year was a very difficult for Democrats, but in the
57th District of Illinois, Democrat Elaine
Nekritz bucked the trend and won in a difficult
situation and helped the Democrats retain control of the Illinois House of Representatives.
We served as Nekritz's pollster during her
successful re-election in 2004.
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